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"I'll be sitting in this position by 2027," Sir Keir Starmer declared, noting that if our conversation was successful, he might welcome us into Downing Street for a follow-up chat in 2026.

There is never any downtime for leaders. Shortly before we sat down, the PM had been in calls with Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky and attempting to work out what on earth had occurred in Venezuela, where his key ally, US President Donald Trump, had just launched a strike against and detained its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

When our interview, which was far more extended than usual, had finished, Maduro had been formally accused in New York.

A Refresh for the New Year

But as the year starts, Sir Keir appears to have had something of a reboot. Maybe even just some relaxation with the family at Chequers, the prime minister's rural getaway.

That certainly seemed to have left him in better spirits than at the saggy conclusion of 2025, a awful political year for him.

Yet, are he and his allies kidding themselves if they believe his fortunes are set to get better?

Internal Doubts

The harsh reality for the prime minister is that a significant number of his fellow MPs think he's ineffective at his job. A faction of them would rather gamble and remove him in 2026.

But Starmer was dismissing such talk during our conversation on Saturday morning.

Multiple times he told me he'd be "evaluated at the general election", insisting nobody would strip his electoral mandate from him – even if the optimal path of halting Nigel Farage and Reform UK reaching No 10 may be for Labour to replace its leader.

"We are in the battle of our generation and I aim to lead us," he declared.

Upcoming Local Votes

The challenge for the PM is that he will be scrutinised long before then – in a mega set of elections in May across the UK. He attempted to argue, perhaps too much, that they are concerning who runs local authorities, and who runs the governments in Holyrood or Cardiff – and unrelated to Westminster.

True – in part. But even though he may be reluctant to admit it, No 10 will be held accountable by those elections too.

Despite this, Sir Keir suggesting that there were no circumstances under which he would resign, should one of his MPs contested his leadership for the job, if those elections be very poor for Labour.

An Optimistic Outlook

He tried to rationalise his unpopularity by saying the public was reasonably eager for things to improve. He tried to assure me, and the public, that 2026 would be different.

The economic situation would strengthen despite rising unemployment, he argued, when plans the government implemented during their initial choppy year began to show results.

• He vowed to empty asylum hotels ahead of the current deadline of 2029, but he did not set a specific date on that.
• He noted too, with the proviso that it wasn't a foregone conclusion, that a peace deal in Ukraine felt a greater possibility now than at any time since Russia's major invasion.
• He revealed for the first occasion that Western partners were now considering how to coordinate US and European forces to provide security for Ukraine – to guard a potential peace.

His central message is that this year the country will "reach a turning point".

Familiar Arguments

The PM may have spoken with more energy than I've seen from him for a some time – less tense, perhaps, with a longer slot to talk.

But despite facing calls from various quarters for a more decisive approach, with greater political clarity, more dynamism, more speed and more immediacy, his explanations were familiar ones.

When he finds himself in considerable political peril, should he consider a change of tack?

No government, and certainly not one that has been unpopular for many months, gets everything its as planned.

Sir Keir's challenges are not just because governing is hard, but because he and his colleagues have made mistakes, even in the recent past.

Controversies and Dangers

The PM told me that he was sorry for saying he was "pleased" to welcome back the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK after an controversy when statements he'd made in the past – such as calls for Zionists and police to be killed – resurfaced.

Starmer blamed "the process" for not catching what the activist had said before – a fancier way of saying it wasn't his responsibility.

And he is courting evident political perils as the year gets going. His alliance with the US president acquires a new jeopardy after Trump's strikes on Venezuela.

Based on years of interviewing Sir Keir Starmer, a former human rights lawyer who opposed the war in Iraq, over a long period, the thought he would be comfortable with such action seems unlikely.

Policy Stances and Pressures

He stated he was a "career-long advocate of international law" but we "simply lack the entire story at the moment".

Some wanted him to criticise the action before we spoke. And the government is likely to face further scrutiny to give an clear view in Parliament in the next few days.

There has also always been bubbling pressure in the Labour party to undo or remake some of the outcomes of Brexit.

Sir Keir denies he's heading in that direction, but his new more concrete commitment to move closer with the EU's single market – the vast economic European market – will probably trigger accusations that he is breaking his promise never to try to overturn the results that stemmed from Brexit.

A commitment to cosy up to more of the single market will delight a faction on his backbenches, but it is simple material for Reform and the Conservatives to